State of the Union Address

How the hell are we still in this?!?

First things first, the Islanders have no business being a .500 team.  The team is as bad as that old Fisherman logo that the Islanders had a few years ago.  The team has as much NHL top 6 forward/top 4 defence experience as Garth Snow had as an NHL executive.  Running with powerhouses Casey Czikas, Valeri Nichuskin and Connor Sheary on the top line doesn’t exactly install fear into any of the other TUFHL teams.

The high +/- on the team is scintillating +1 (shared by Noah Dobson and Brett Kulak); the top 4-point leaders on the team are defenceman with Connor Sheary leading the way for the forwards producing 36 points in 61 games.  The team sits 29^th in the league in goals for (averaging less than 3 per game), 29^th in shot differential and dead last in shots per game.

Yet, the team is playing .500 hockey and currently sits only 4 points out of the last wildcard spot.  Frankly, a playoff berth does not help this team and rather desperately needs a talent influx from the higher draft pick that comes with missing the playoffs.

So how did the team get here?

Literally on the backs of the defensive corps, the stellar play from Greiss and Sororkin and the defense first and all-ice responsibility strategy being espoused by coach Barry Trotz is how.  The top 4 d-men of Theodore, Leddy, Schultz and Vlasic are the heart and soul of the team.  Coach Trotz could not sing there praises any more when he said, “the Islanders entire offensive game runs through our top 4 d-corps.  The forwards are along for the ride and help out by getting the greasy goals we need to eke out one-goal wins.”

From a team perspective, the powerplay currently sits 4^th in the league and the penalty kill sits a respectable 9^th.  The save percentage of our goalie tandem is also 4^th best in the entire league.  Trotz added, “Ilya and Griesser, night after night, stand on their heads.  We get consistently outshot and they steal games for us and you really cannot ask for more.”  Trotz further mentioned that the plan is to continue to split goalie starts relatively evenly as neither would be able to carry a full load without getting exhausted and that this strategy seems to be working best for the team.

There is no doubt that the net of the future belongs to Ilya Sororkin.  The Russian netminder is a superstar in the making and exactly what one wants/looks for when you use the term “franchise goalie.”  GM Ian Thornton summed up how the team views him when he said “we have a spot already picked out in the rafters for when Ilya retires as an Islander.  If there is such a thing as ‘untradeable’, that would be Ilya.”

Looking at the future, the Islanders have a couple key pieces to build around either on the team, on the farm roster or on the prospect list.  These include:

1.     Shea Theodore – 39 points in 65 NHL games and occupying a #1 role in Vegas.  He is an RFA in our league and has another year remaining on his current contract

2.     Noah Dobson – 38 points in 65 NHL games and is now running the NHL Islanders powerplay.  His 3^rd NHL season and progression each year shows that sky is the limit.

3.     Lucas Raymond – 50 points in 60 NHL games in his rookie season.  He has shown he has arrived and a Calder Trophy is not out of the question.

4.     Jesperi Kotkaniemi – 26 points in 63 NHL games but more importantly, seems to have found a home on a team that wants him long-term

5.     Oliver Wahlstrom – 24 points in 61 games in his second NHL season – and has recently cemented his place as a top 6 forward on the Island

6.     Valeri Nichushkin – 40 points in 50 games this season, his deployment on the 2^nd line with Kadri has him finally living up to his 1^st round draft pedigree

7.     Alex Alexeyev – already having an NHL call up, even if for just 1 game, the 6’4’’ d-man handled himself well and will be a solid addition to the Capitals regular blue line group as early as next season

8.     Kaapo Kakko – on draft pedigree alone, he should be a strong addition to the Rangers.  However, while still only 21, he has only put up 14 points in 37 games and seems to be progressing slower than expected/wanted.  Signs of great things to come have been there but the question of the Rangers patience may come before the hopeful breakout.  The now or never point is likely coming.

The Islanders have some other young players/prospects that have potential and could prove to be important pieces in the long-term plan.  These include:

1.     Jan Jenik – 39 points in 46 games in the AHL this season.  He has had a sniff at the NHL potting 2 goals in his first few games and seems to be a nice part of Arizona’s rebuild.

2.     Filip Hallander – 21 points in 50 AHL games and not quite performing up to his draft pedigree.  The trade back to Pittsburgh, the original team that drafted him, may be his winfall as the Penguins have one of the shallowest prospect pools and he is “one of their own” so will get every chance to succeed.

3.     Emil Heineman – 11 goals in the top league in Sweden as a 20-year-old.  There are only 4 other players under 21 who have scored more goals this season.  His rights were traded to Montreal in the Toffoli deal and given their youth movement, there is hopefully a spot for him on the parent club sooner rather than later (even if his contract holds him to the SHL until the 2023-2024 season).

4.     Lukas Cormier – 2^nd in the QMJHL this season for points by a defenceman with 62 points in 48 games.  He was named to the Canadian World Junior team and we will get to see him in this tournament this August (hopefully).  The upside is definitely there…the downside is that his rights are owned by Vegas who seem to have a never ending supply of young defencemen in their coffers.

5.     Matthew Robertson – the 6’4’’ Rangers prospect has fared well in his transition to the pro game.  11 points in 50 AHL games and NHL ready size and strong defensive play has Rangers brass possibly eying a future Schneider-Robertson pairing in their top 4 deployment.

6.     Mattias Norlinder – played 6 NHL and 6 AHL games this past season before the Canadiens sent him back to Sweden to continue his development.  Given the dumpster fire that the Canadiens have been this season, it is hoped that this was the best and we can see him as a regular on the blueline in the years to come.

7.     Robin Salo – 18 games in the NHL and then 16 points in 33 AHL games can only be seen as a major positive for his first season in North America.  There is no doubt the move back to the AHL will help his confidence and transition as it allowed him to play more and the future is there for the taking on the parent club blueline as early as next season.

8.     Sean Farrell – After a 101 point season in 53 USHL games last season, he followed this up by putting up 28 points in 24 NCAA games as a sophomore (but lost season as a freshman).  He followed this up by adding 6 points in 4 games for the US at the Olympics.  Montreal must be licking their chops at his offensive upside.

9.     Sebastian Aho – the other Sebastian Aho seems to have finally found somewhat of a regular place on the Islanders blueline since February.  Limited to 29 games, he has still put up 11 points and interestingly, his only NHL goal this year was scored at almost the exact same time that the other Sebastian Aho also scored!

10.  Jan Mysak – 58 points in 50 games in the OHL this year, he is 1 of 49 players currently averaging over a point per game.  Named captain of the Czech World Junior team for the second year in a row, this summer will be his 3^rd tournament.  Another Montreal draft pick, there is hope for him to gain an important position in la Belle Provence in the coming years.

11.  Simon Holmstron – 34 points in 58 AHL games, he has shown development in what amounts to his 3^rd AHL season.  Given the fact that he was a former 1^st round pick of the Islanders, he will surely be given every chance to succeed and will likely get a chance at the NHL at some point.

12.  Josh Brook – Recovery from knee surgery and then a COVID diagnosis has limited him to only 5 games this year.  Hopes were high for Brook and he was regularly touted as a top prospect – but his window is getting smaller and smaller to show he has what it takes to make it and stay at the NHL level.

The Islanders have numerous other players who could surprise but are either playing a limited 3^rd/4^th line role in the NHL and/or a regular at the AHL.  Some names like Brett Leason, Keifer Bellows, Lias Andersson, Ryan Poehling Boris Katchouk and Filip Chytil are more household names than some of the others and ultimately perhaps have the highest upside than the many others that fit into this category, however, their upside does appear capped. 

The downside for the TUFHL Islanders is that the current lack of depth at the forward position will require them to play bigger roles on our team than their ratings and NHL usage/potential dictate.  GM Thornton and coach Trotz will try to get the best out of them and cross their fingers that one of them does hit pay dirt and finds a bigger role on their respective NHL teams but they are also not putting money on it.  Coach Trotz summed it up best when he simply said, “it is what it is and as long as they continue to buy into our system, they will be useful players for us.” 

How long they have to play this “over their heads” role will depend on keen drafting and any trades that GM Thornton is able to pull off.  Up to this point, GM Thornton has been quiet on the trade front and you might say he has put as much effort into this as the NHL Islanders put into their Retro Reverse jersey this year.  Unfortunately, he found the market for his best assets, the aforementioned defence corps, was quite limited.  Not looking for “picks and prospects” for these players but rather actual forwards to improve this part of his team simply were not available or were not of the quality that was being sought.  Armed with tons of salary cap space, the extension of the trade deadline to April 22^nd may yield some changes to the Islanders roster.

Realistically, all players with the exception of Dobson, Raymond, Farrell and Sororkin remain in play for trade discussions.  Hit me up if there is something you like and are interested in making a deal – I do try to check Slack at least once per day even if not involved in the discussions.  As mentioned, prospects and draft picks are nice for the rebuild but we need forward depth as well!

To wrap up this assessment of the Islanders season and future, the following housekeeping is necessary whereby the following prospects are being released:  Anatoly Golyshev, Andong Song, Ben Holmstrom, Chris Bourque, Chris Casto, Connor Jones, Henrik Lundqvist, Jeremy Smith, Johan Sundstrom, Matthew Boudens, Mike Sislo, Robert Carpenter, Scott Eansor and Stephen Gionta.

That’s it from the Island.  Stay classy TUFHL.