Breaking it down by the numbers

  With the Lightning eliminated from the post season before it even begins, a new playoff chapter can begin for the Montreal Canadiens.  Randy was easily able to dispatch my team in our first and second round matchups over the last two seasons.  Now that he's out, there is a renewed sense of optimism in the Habs' locker room.  Anything seems possible.  When the team started the season with a 3-9 record it all seemed so hopeless.  The East is such a tough conference and GM Rainville had thrown his arrogant "I can do anything" attitude in the dumpster.  It seemed like selling off was the only choice.  Thankfully, selling off was the best choice.  Pavel Zacha has been terrific centering our third line and our salady dump fourth line players are playing pretty well considering the lack of general talent.  Sam Montembeault won his first five starts after being acquired and that seemd to be what was needed to finally get Mike Smith to stop a puck after two years of miserable stats in the net.

  Now the Habs face off against the Maple Leafs in the 1st round and there is a buzz in the air for this one.  The teams faced off over four games this season splitting the wins at two apeice.  Let's take a deeper dive into those games and break them down by the numbers.  The Maple Leafs started out the season on fire and seemed untouchable.  As the season progressed they slowed down and finished their last 27 games with a 14-13 record.  They went 7-3 in their last ten games with big wins over the Habs and Avs and ended the year on a three game winning streak.  Montreal on the other hand was 22-7 in their final 29 games ending the year 8-1-1 in their last ten and finishing on the same three game winning streak.  Only four points seperate these two giants in the standings.  The Leafs finished with 54 wins,  Montreal with 53.

Head to Head

Habs:  2-2 record   11 goals    140 shots    PP 4-24    Hits 75    Faceoff wins 170    Blocked shots 22    PIM 21

Leafs:  2-2 record   12 goals    76 shots      PP 2-7      Hits 101   Faceoff wins 149    Blocked shots 29   PIM 66

  The first thing that jumps out right away is the shots.  The Leafs were outshot almost 2-1 over four games.  The 17 extra power play opportunities can't be ignored either.  Despite the shot differential, Montreal and Toronto blocked a similar amount of shots.  The most important stat is the goals scored.  Despite being outplayed, outshot and outchanced, Toronto managed to score more goals over the series.  Their power play got the job done and the 66 minutes of penalties they took include a misconduct to Jake Muzzin for attempting to injure.

  So the game plan in Montreal is to continue to play the way we have and hope that the addition of O'Reilly near the deadline can help propel us past the Leafs into was is now a wide open Eastern Conference.  The Leafs have to hope that they can keep putting the puck in the net and limit the amount of penalties they take.  Montreal finished the season with the league's best power play(23.78%) but also one of the worst penalty kills(79.42%) so expect special teams to play a huge factor in this series.

 Prediction:

  Montreal is riding some sort of magical fantasy hockey carpet ride.  Some teams have had our number and others have not.  Toronto is an example of a team that we dominated this year.  Montreal wins this series in six games.  Regardless of the outcome, this team will be dismantled at the end of the year.  Three consecutive seasons of "going all in" have depleted the cupboars and this team needs a year or two to start rebuilding.  With the East in it's current state it doesn't seem likely that a half hearted approach would get this team into the playoffs next year.  This is GM Rainville's last chance at the cup for the foreseable future.

Good luck to all in the playoffs this year.